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Is There a Silver Shortage?

By the Silver Market Chart editorial team · Updated November 10, 2026

Quick answer: By the Silver Institute's count, the world has used more silver than it produced for five years running. Its World Silver Survey 2026, released on April 15, 2026, put the 2025 market deficit at 40.3 million troy ounces and called it the fifth consecutive annual shortfall. The same survey forecasts a sixth deficit in 2026, of 46.3 million ounces. A deficit is not the same thing as an empty shelf: it is a gap between one year's flows, and existing stocks fill it. Silver is now 57.5% below its January record. Sources last reviewed November 10, 2026.

Silver $51.66 per troy ounce · gold $4,033.80 · as of · spot quotes from gold-api.com

"Shortage" gets used for two different things. One is a statistical deficit, where a year's demand exceeds a year's new supply. The other is a physical squeeze, where buyers in one place can't get metal when they want it. The first is measured once a year by researchers; the second shows up in premiums, delivery times and vault stocks. This page covers both, keeps them apart, and gives every figure with its publisher and date.

The supply and demand table, 2021 to 2026

The figures below come from the "Silver Supply and Demand" table in the World Silver Survey 2026, produced for the Silver Institute by Metals Focus. All figures are millions of ounces. A negative balance is a deficit. The 2026 row is the survey's forecast, not a result.

YearMine productionRecyclingIndustrialJewelrySilverwareCoins and barsTotal demandBalance
2021825.4191.8564.1181.040.7285.31,102.4-83.7
2022833.7194.6592.3233.273.5339.51,284.1-254.0
2023810.7184.6657.1201.755.1244.21,197.0-200.1
2024823.6194.5679.0205.153.5190.91,157.4-137.9
2025846.6197.6657.4189.342.1217.71,130.6-40.3
2026 forecast844.1211.3639.6159.433.5257.61,112.6-46.3

Total demand in the survey also includes smaller lines not shown as columns here, which is why the visible demand columns don't add up to the total.

Each new survey revises the years before it, so a figure you saw last year may have changed. The 2025 edition had first put the 2024 deficit at 148.9 million ounces; the 2026 edition shows 137.9 million. We use the 2026 series throughout.

Two things stand out. The deficit peaked in 2022 and has narrowed most years since, with 2025's gap a fraction of 2022's. And early estimates have moved a lot. In November 2025, the Silver Institute's interim report estimated the 2025 deficit at 95 million ounces; the final survey came in at 40.3 million. A February 2026 release forecast a 2026 deficit of 67 million ounces; by April that forecast was 46.3 million. Treat any single year's balance as a range rather than a fixed point.

Added up, the survey counts 762.1 million ounces of cumulative deficit across the six years from 2021 through the 2026 forecast.

Where mine supply comes from

Most silver is not mined for its own sake. The US Geological Survey says silver is obtained mainly as a byproduct of lead-zinc, copper and gold mines, in that order. The World Silver Survey 2026 gives the volumes for 2025: lead and zinc mines were the largest source at 249.1 million ounces, copper operations supplied 237.3 million, and gold mining 134.7 million. Primary silver mines produced a record-low 26% of global supply.

That matters for the shortage question. A mine run for zinc or copper is planned around zinc or copper, so its silver output is a side effect of decisions about other metals. A higher silver price does not by itself switch on new supply from those mines.

USGS publishes its own estimates in metric tons, and they line up with the survey in broad terms. It put world mine production at 25,300 tons in 2024 and an estimated 26,000 tons in 2025, with Mexico the largest producer at an estimated 6,300 tons. USGS puts world reserves at 610,000 tons. The long annual history of prices behind these flows is on our silver price by year table.

What a deficit means when prices still fall

Here is the part that confuses many readers. Silver has been in deficit for five straight years by the Silver Institute's count, yet the price fell hard this year: from $121.30 on January 29, 2026 to $51.66 today. How can both be true?

A deficit measures a year's flows. Prices respond to everything: flows, stocks, interest rates, the dollar, and how many traders want out at once. When demand exceeds new supply, the difference comes from metal that already exists, held in vaults, in exchange-traded products, or by individuals. As long as holders are willing to sell at some price, the market clears. A deficit tells you stocks are being drawn down. It does not tell you stocks have run short, and it does not tell you the price must rise.

The stocks are large compared with the yearly gap. The World Silver Survey 2026 counted identifiable bullion inventories in London vaults and exchanges at 1,394.5 million ounces at the end of 2025. The Silver Institute estimated global silver exchange-traded product holdings at 1.31 billion ounces in February 2026. Its November 2025 interim slides put the cumulative stock drawdown from 2010 to 2025 at about 580 million ounces. Compare those with the 40.3 million ounce deficit for 2025.

The price fall in 2026 is covered from dated reports on our page about why the silver price is dropping. The short version from those reports is that rate expectations, a stronger dollar and forced selling drove the moves; none of them is a supply story.

Solar and electronics demand

Industrial use is the largest slice of silver demand, and solar panels drove much of its growth. The survey's photovoltaic line shows the climb and the turn: 88.9 million ounces in 2021, 197.5 million in 2024, 186.6 million in 2025, and a forecast 151.0 million for 2026. Total industrial demand peaked in 2024 at 679.0 million ounces and slipped in 2025.

In the United States, USGS estimates photovoltaics took 15% of domestic silver use in 2025. Silver was also added to the federal government's final 2025 List of Critical Minerals, which says something about its strategic weight but nothing about its price.

Other forecasts point the same way for solar. In October 2026, 24/7 Wall St. reported that JPMorgan expects solar silver demand to fall 30% this year. That is a bank's view relayed by a news site, and we include it only to show that the solar story has two sides.

Physical tightness versus headlines

A real physical squeeze leaves marks you can check. Premiums over the futures price rise. Metal moves between vaults. Delivery times stretch. Here are the signs this site tracks or has sourced.

  • Shanghai. Shanghai's benchmark priced silver +14.8% above the last US futures close before it was set, on November 9, 2026. A wide premium means buyers in China paid up relative to New York. Our page on the Shanghai silver price shows how the figure is built and its recent range.
  • London. The World Silver Survey 2026 estimated London's "free float" at 136 million ounces at the end of September 2025. In October 2025, Kitco News quoted a trader saying COMEX stocks had fallen from 530 million ounces to about 501 million as metal shipped back to London.
  • New York. Registered and eligible stocks in exchange vaults are published daily by CME Group. Our guide to COMEX silver inventory explains what the categories mean and what a drawdown does and doesn't signal.

Lease rates, the cost of borrowing physical silver for a short time, are another sign traders watch. We don't have a sourced lease-rate series, so we don't print one.

A headline that says "shortage" without a date, a place and a number is usually describing the annual deficit in stronger words. Check which of the two it means.

How this connects to the size of the market

A deficit of tens of millions of ounces sounds large until you set it against the stock of silver above ground. Our page on silver market cap shows the Silver Institute-commissioned estimate of that stock, both the total and the bullion-only part, and what each is worth at today's price. The yearly gap is small next to either figure, which is one reason deficits and falling prices can sit side by side.

What this page can't tell you

This page can't tell you whether a deficit will turn into a physical shortage, or when. The annual balance is an estimate made by researchers, revised every year, and early figures have moved by tens of millions of ounces. It can't see private holdings, which no survey counts. And it can't tell you what the price does next: five years of deficits have included years of rising prices and this year's fall. The live figure is on the silver market price chart, and the live chart of today's silver market also carries its time stamp.

Information, not financial advice. We do not tell you to buy or sell and we do not predict prices. Figures are reference numbers as of the time shown.

Some readers come to the deficit question while deciding whether to hold metal in an IRA. This site has one partner for that, Augusta Precious Metals; our page on it lists the facts we could confirm, the dates we read them, and the kind of buyer it does not fit.

Frequently asked questions

Is there a silver shortage right now?

There is a reported deficit, not an empty market. The Silver Institute counted a fifth straight annual deficit in 2025, of 40.3 million ounces, and forecasts a sixth in 2026. Existing stocks have covered the gap, and prices fell this year anyway, so the deficit has not shown up as a lack of metal.

Who measures silver supply and demand?

The main annual count is the World Silver Survey, produced for the Silver Institute by the research firm Metals Focus and released each April. The US Geological Survey publishes separate estimates of mine output, reserves and consumption in metric tons. The two use different methods, so their totals are close but not identical.

Does solar demand mean silver is running short?

Solar has been a large part of industrial demand, but the survey's own figures show photovoltaic use falling in 2025 and forecast to fall again in 2026. Demand from one sector rising or falling changes the annual balance; it does not by itself mean metal is unavailable.

Sources

Each page we drew a fact from, with whether it was the publisher's own page or a page reporting it.